End of an era..

The top breaking news story of the day can be only one thing - the official resignation of long-time dictator Fidel Castro from his positions as President of Cuba, and Commander in Chief of that nations armed forces. While this bit of news has been circulating in the rumour mill for quite some time, this time it's actually official, as Castro published his intent openly in Granma, a state-run newspaper. He has publicly named his brother Raul to succeed him. American Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte has said that the trade embargo will not be lifted.

Ultimately, the time has come for Cuba to change. Fidel stood proud over his country for over 50 years, and ruled with an iron fist - standing up to political opposition from the United States, and weathering a crippling trade embargo since the Kennedy administration, and ultimately ruling a nation through the force of his own will and his own fiery rhetoric. It seems funny, in hindsight. I'm not a communist, and hate what Castro stands for, politically, however I also have to admit that I admire the man for his spirit, and for the power of his will. That admiration aside, it's time for a change, but will change come?

The single biggest wildcard in this equation is the person, character, and strength of Raul Castro. This man is, quite frankly, an enigma. The international community does not know him, and yet his power is genuine. The few reports I've read show a man strong in his way, but silent. Not the fiery orator that his brother is, Raul may fall under his brother's shadow, even as his brother retires. On the alternate side is his control over the military, and his problem solving ability. Over the years, it's been Raul who quietly did what needed to be done. Some believe that he will be more pragmatic than his brother on economic reforms, and will bring some much-needed economic changes into the state - including attempts to make friendly with the Americans with the aim of lifting the trade embargo. Others believe that he is more the bloodthirsty revolutionary than his brother - images of his ordering the executions of many of Batista's soldiers during the revolution, and political dissidents thereafter.

So Raul is the wildcard, and he has the choice to make to either set his people free, or keep them repressed. If he frees the people, then he will have broken faith with his brother - or has his brother been breaking faith with him? If he frees the people, Sens. Obama and McCain have both suggested that they would ease the embargo, which would be of huge benefit to Cuba. Alternately, he can maintain the repression that the people have been under since the Batista regime. In doing so, he will validate himself as a revolutionary icon, and prove himself deserving of his brother's confidence. He will, in truth and name, be Fidel's successor. He will also see the American trade embargo continue. I don't envy Raul, but this is the choice he has. Which choice he makes is anyone's guess.