The top breaking news story of the day can be only one thing - the official resignation of long-time dictator Fidel Castro from his positions as President of Cuba, and Commander in Chief of that nations armed forces. While this bit of news has been circulating in the rumour mill for quite some time, this time it's actually official, as Castro published his intent openly in Granma, a state-run newspaper. He has publicly named his brother Raul to succeed him. American Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte has said that the trade embargo will not be lifted.
Ultimately, the time has come for Cuba to change. Fidel stood proud over his country for over 50 years, and ruled with an iron fist - standing up to political opposition from the United States, and weathering a crippling trade embargo since the Kennedy administration, and ultimately ruling a nation through the force of his own will and his own fiery rhetoric. It seems funny, in hindsight. I'm not a communist, and hate what Castro stands for, politically, however I also have to admit that I admire the man for his spirit, and for the power of his will. That admiration aside, it's time for a change, but will change come?
The single biggest wildcard in this equation is the person, character, and strength of Raul Castro. This man is, quite frankly, an enigma. The international community does not know him, and yet his power is genuine. The few reports I've read show a man strong in his way, but silent. Not the fiery orator that his brother is, Raul may fall under his brother's shadow, even as his brother retires. On the alternate side is his control over the military, and his problem solving ability. Over the years, it's been Raul who quietly did what needed to be done. Some believe that he will be more pragmatic than his brother on economic reforms, and will bring some much-needed economic changes into the state - including attempts to make friendly with the Americans with the aim of lifting the trade embargo. Others believe that he is more the bloodthirsty revolutionary than his brother - images of his ordering the executions of many of Batista's soldiers during the revolution, and political dissidents thereafter.
So Raul is the wildcard, and he has the choice to make to either set his people free, or keep them repressed. If he frees the people, then he will have broken faith with his brother - or has his brother been breaking faith with him? If he frees the people, Sens. Obama and McCain have both suggested that they would ease the embargo, which would be of huge benefit to Cuba. Alternately, he can maintain the repression that the people have been under since the Batista regime. In doing so, he will validate himself as a revolutionary icon, and prove himself deserving of his brother's confidence. He will, in truth and name, be Fidel's successor. He will also see the American trade embargo continue. I don't envy Raul, but this is the choice he has. Which choice he makes is anyone's guess.
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2 comments:
Finally got around to your blog...interesting stuff that I look forward to commenting on.
The exit of Castro is definitely the end of an era, and I think you are right to admire his spirit and his iron-fisted leadership style.
But as for changes, I think there's only one way for it to go now, and that's certainly not up.
Despite Cuba's poverty, it has two things the US and other industrialized countries never managed: Near total literacy and an excellent healthcare system. For a dictator, he seems to have cared for the people to a great extent even if it was to keep them happy enough not to revolt. This is the direct result of state intervention.
And as far as healthcare goes, it is probably the finest in Latin America. Many doctors, good patient-doctor ratios and requirements for new MD's to practice general medicine in areas of need. compared to this, the rest of Latin America is a laughing stock. It may not be perfect...but it is universal.
When I discuss Cuba with my father (whose home colony, Mozambique, was destroyed by a totally different set of communist insurgents), he scoffs at its achievements in those two areas, claiming that "without the reds, they'd be another third world country." That is true, of course....only if one remembers the embargo you mentioned. The soviet aid was deliberately designed to offset the American embargo, and was actually the direct result of it (what, did you think Fidel would sit around and wait for economic stagnation without asking for help from those who would be guaranteed to give it?).
But the embargo had the added effect of making the place a bit more insulated from the rampant capitalism of the United States and, most importantly, kept it from American political influence. That's the only way the healthcare and education systems could have survived, as they have done.
The economic reforms I think you are hoping for will mean the end of all of that. The free market, serving and being served in turn by governments whose existence are owed in part to corporate interests, will not tolerate free healthcare. The idea of some area of human activity being off-limits for profit maximization is unacceptable, and won't last long. Canada's own healthcare system will disappear or denigrate into a shadow of itself for precisely that reason.
And so, if Raul goes the way of engaging the united states, and the embargo is eased or lifted, that will be it for healthcare. The economic reforms - free market reforms - will chip away at it slowly, asking for this, asking for that, until it's gone, just like all of Castro's other social reforms.
And it will happen. When Castro announced his "retirement," you could hear execs in boardrooms across the US collectively creaming their pants. Cuba to them is, as it has always been, an economic opportunity.
It will be nice when the brothers Castro aren't throwing gay poets in jail anymore. But I'm not looking forward to a Cuba where those who need healthcare will have to do without.
Perhaps the Cubans can have the best of both worlds. Perhaps their health care system, and the other beneficial programs that Fidel instituted will remain. Perhaps they wont - I don't know. I hope for the best for them, and maybe, just maybe, they'll be able to show the rest of the third world the right way to make the transition upwards. Then again, that could just be a pipe-dream, and they'll turn into another American protectorate.
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